The EU are very good at producing data, which can help to forecast the future, or remind us of the past.
Samples above provided in February 2024 measure a 5 year time span and reflect the Covid pandemic. Greenhouse gases were down because production was, GDP, business registrations, employment and mortality were all affected.
More recent times see EU inflation at 3.4%, with food and energy inflation a little higher. House prices are falling to a degree, as is construction, unemployment is fair, export levels, retail sales, and services supply are jogging along.
None of this is terrible but does reflect economic stagnation, openly admitted by the EU as “..subdued momentum over an extended period..”. A position which can be seen in much of the Western world.
Comparison To The UK
With Brexit complete and the UK now more or less removed from Europe, interesting to look at the comparative position.
We have suffered more from inflation in recent times, although the EU were not immune, with household pressure and subsidies in evidence. There were shared causes, which go beyond Europe, or the UK.
Covid was a global problem, bringing strain to supply chains which have not entirely recovered. The invasion of Ukraine increased already existing energy inflation, more recent problems in the Middle East are adding complexity.
The UK does have specific issues, a shortage of workers and a heavy reliance on natural gas. Even so, the differences are not stark, parts of the data produced by the EU are quite similar to our own.
A Shared Way Out
Societal factors need addressing, we are not the only country to create a non viable housing market but the path to improvement is to increase trade. Neither does this need to be in new markets, or sectors.
The EU labour market and European economic sentiment may be behind pre-pandemic levels but are resilient. Brexit has not brought trade and economic symptoms which many felt would be inevitable.
Trade with the EU is down but has not crashed, possible resentment has not materialised. In surveys and in real life, EU businesses do not generally have a problem trading with the UK, often viewing Brexit as a political aberration.
There is no harm at all in exploring other markets but trade with the EU could be restored, to the benefit of both parties.
Essential Ingredients
The relationship has improved a touch but politicians on both sides, especially the UK, need to change tack. Brexit is history but there is no reason to persevere with minor treaty tweaking, when notable change would be better.
If that means the UK conforming to a few aspects of civil legislation they don’t control, then do so. Other aspects can be modified, from qualification recognition, to a greater ability to work in each other’s countries.
Nobody is suggesting that the parting is annulled, as separate nations, there will be ongoing requirements. They are likely to include customs regulations, such as the use of ATA carnets for the EU which we supply.
Carnets are working fine and not creating a barrier, as is the case for other legislative changes. All that is needed is a proactive, non political effort to remove aspects which are a blockage, so the genuine wish to trade can be taken forward.