Just before the final step of Brexit took place, the EU president Ursula von der Leyen visited the LSE and stated:
“When the sun rises again on February 1st, the EU and the UK will still be the best of friends and partners. The bonds between us will still be unbreakable.” Politically polite but some would say not entirely accurate.
The ensuing period saw relationships spiral ever downward, between the UK and EU, along with the UK and individual EU countries. An EU Commissioner described relations as broken, not a great situation for any party.
There have been core issues, the Northern Ireland Protocol and other trade matters but the real issue has been the spirit of approach. Signs are now beginning to appear of a brighter light filling meeting rooms.
Events, Dear Boy, Events
Harold Macmillan’s time honoured phrase fits the situation well. The threat to European security from Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, the ensuing energy crisis, a variety of hangovers from the Covid-19 pandemic.
Time for others to come together and to a degree we have on those issues. There are also less specific points which are altering the mindset.
Current thoughts in the House of Commons Library on post Brexit trade deals makes the point. “….to update the existing UK- (other country) agreement, which largely replicates the agreement they have with the EU.”
The same phrase is repeated for a number of countries. Reflecting the obvious that unless they have individual reasons, nobody wants to offer a deal to a country of 67 million, which is better than one with a bloc of 450 million.
Recent polls show that the Brexit “will of the people” argument is also wearing thin. Far more are dissatisfied than remain supportive.
Political Changes
The soap opera of UK politics in recent times is not worth reviewing, neither was this unique in Europe. The good thing is that more countries may see value in improving the UK-EU relationship, including the UK.
As has been demonstrated by other matters, from wind farms, to planning, the occupants of 10 and 11 Downing Street are still hostages to elements of their own party.
Even so, the cries of Brexit fulfiling our global destiny are waning. Reality is shifting into focus, rather than the ideology which dominated the Brexit debate before and since the 2016 referendum.
Looking Forward
We are not suggesting that Brexit can vanish and we will quietly rejoin. Perhaps in the very long term but this isn’t the thought parties have.
What is been subtly put forward is that a bright future awaiting Britain completely outside the EU is not a rational statement. Neither is total separation a wonderful answer for a range of EU members.
The borders won’t go away in the morning, for temporary exports, you will still need an ATA carnet for the EU. What can happen is an effort to replace dogma with common sense and a touch of humanity.
As the festive season approaches, a good time to think that. We wish businesses everywhere a fine 2023, where we pursue the opportunity to move forward together.