Keir Starmer makes no secret of his wish to amend Brexit but will the opportunity arise and are others willing.
A Dutch politician recently spoke of dissipating Brexit. An unusual choice of words, although the German finance minister was less opaque.
At a World Bank meeting in Marrakech, Christian Lindner gave the UK an invitation to “call us”, to discuss new steps on post Brexit trade with the EU. He went on to say that neither side was benefiting from the existing deal.
That Britain’s trade has shrunk is accepted but figures from Germany suggest their exports to the UK are 14% lower than before the Brexit referendum. Car exports are down further and likely to worsen, if tariffs are confirmed on electric vehicles.
After the invitation, the UK government’s response was a fairly bland “we are open to new opportunities across the globe”. The opposition are in the midst of a different stance, as Keir Starmer recently demonstrated.
Entente Cordiale
Not quite the historic accord of 1904 but an interesting move. After steps to build a relationship with the German Chancellor, Mr Starmer took a trip to Paris, to meet the French President Emmanuel Macron.
They were billed as getting to know you talks and held away from the media, partly for diplomatic reasons. Both sides simply described the talks as positive and constructive, as much as would ever be said for an opposition meeting.
Part of the rationale is of course Mr Macron’s awareness that Keir Starmer may be the next UK Prime Minister. We take no sides but can recall other times Labour had a large poll lead and failed, not least the Kinnock bid.
There is still a need to accept that the result of the next UK election will have an influence on our relationship with Europe.
Different Views
Keir Starmer openly believes in renegotiating the Brexit deal but not in rejoining the single market, or customs union, at least not in public.
Whilst they have looked to try to rebuild, the Conservative leadership also have issues on public views. Any attempt to try to openly cosy up to the EU would take them down the Liz Truss route, albeit for different reasons.
Then there is the EU to consider, whose expressed opinion is to leave the deal pretty much as in the Trade and Cooperation Agreement.
A review of the Brexit deal is due in 2026. Whilst Mr Lindner’s view suggests Germany is willing to move more quickly, that may still prove a pivotal point in laying out the UK-EU relationship for the immediate future.
Realistic Outcomes
World events prove that trying to guess the future is a fools errand. Still worth considering that where a number of countries are involved, a not uncommon outcome is somewhere in the middle of expectations.
There is a likelihood that the relationship will improve, along with practical arrangements. Current UK polls are showing 58% in favour of rejoining the EU but this may not be realistic for some while, if at all.
The current government are a long way from that and any adviser suggesting to Keir Starmer he made the next election a Brexit re-run, would be out of a job. A few countries apart, neither is there much appetite for rebirth within the EU.
Systems which are working okay for both sides, such as ATA carnets for the EU, are likely to remain in place. Areas where both parties are suffering may well see change within a reasonable time frame.
They could range from working rights and qualifications, to origin rules, or other trade related legislation. Those wishing for an open door to reappear may have to wait.