The UK’s EU membership was not always idyllic but we were part of the European project for five decades before leaving.
We should not forget the timing, which nobody could foresee. The last minute UK-EU trade agreement took effect 31st December 2020, just 30 days later, the World Health Organization declared a public health emergency.
With the outcome a global pandemic brought for trade and shipping, splitting out the effects of Brexit is complex. Even within government circles there is no consensus, with politicians and public bodies some way apart.
The newly created Brexit Opportunities Minister has said there is little evidence of leaving the EU damaging UK trade. The Office for Budget Responsibility has stated that Brexit has had twice as much effect as the pandemic.
Practical reality will hopefully take precedence over political views, with Brexit still in a sense far from over.
Ongoing Negotiations
More than 5 years have elapsed since the UK referendum on leaving the EU. Interim deals and “final” agreements have come and gone, with negotiations still taking place across a range of subjects.
Border and immigration arrangements are still unsettled, with downsides for both parties, although Northern Ireland remains the headline topic.
The level of discontent has literally brought riots, then in February 2022, a Northern Ireland Executive minister attempted to entirely halt customs checks. The EU and UK governments are trying to agree changes to the current position.
This issue has helped to sour relations and made other needs harder to solve, such as fishing rights, or cooperation on migration. Practical developments we could have benefited from have become a victim of confrontation.
Easier VAT treatment across the EU for UK companies would help, a better approach to business travel and working in the EU, changes on accepting each others standards, or qualifications. The arrangements you might expect from neighbours.
Path To The Future
A survey by the British Chambers of Commerce found 71% disliking the current UK-EU trade agreement, against 12% being supportive. The BBC conducted a similar survey, with the proportions about the same.
There can be positive aspects, such as encouraging companies to look at other markets but the overall view is clear. Brexit may not have brought the collapse a few predicted but costs have increased, competitiveness and trust been damaged.
From our perspective, ATA carnets have been a relative success story from Brexit. One of the few changes which were not governed by the EU or UK and able to provide a sound path for temporary exports to the EU.
The broader picture is still developing and needs to, see our entry on Brexit after 7 years for details of where we stand.